The knowledge base for the elaboration of scenarios was developed through structured research, which included an extensive participative process. Water-related needs, priorities and uncertainties were identified from diverse perspectives through engagement with various stakeholder groups. From the data analyzed and views expressed, the main concluding point that had impacted the scenario planning was that: around 50% of IDPs and refugees indicated a wish to return to places of origin only if all conditions like security, services and livelihood are guaranteed. The other 50% would definitely stay in Duhok Governorate or relocate to other places. Basing on the above mentioned and assumption of population growth by 2.9% by 2023 two scenarios have been developed: ✓ Scenario 1: all IDPs and refugees will stay, ✓ Scenario 2: 50% of the IDPs and refugees will return to their places of origin.

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